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Blog posts of '2024' 'January'

Saturday Newsletter 27 January 2024
Today there is black-type racing in 5 states. At Randwick the feature is the Listed $200,000 Carrington Stakes over 1400m and the betting is wide open. The Listed $160,000 Sunshine Coast Cup is the feature in Queensland and is also wide open. At Morphettville Aitch Two Oh resumes and is the early favorite in the Listed $120,000 Durbridge Stakes after leading all the way to win a recent trial at...
Saturday Newsletter 20 January 2024
Today is fairly rare as there are no Group or Listed races at all, although on Sunday there is the Listed $125,000 Elwick Stakes for 2YOs at Hobart. There are 10-race cards at Flemington, Rosehill and Eagle Farm and 9 races at both Gawler and Ascot. At the provincial racetracks there are 8 races at Townsville and 7 at Kembla Grange. WHAT'S HOT Trial Spy continues to deliver massive results for...
Variance and the importance of sound bankroll management
Two of the most common questions we receive in relation to horse racing investing are: “How much can you expect to win?” and, “If your tips are so good why do you sometimes go on a losing streak?” Let’s break this down into several parts but first, what is the basis of punting profitability? It means that tips are only provided when the rated price is shorter than the odds available in the...
The Mathematics - Runs of Outs or Losing Streaks
The longest expected losing streak (or winning streak) can be calculated using the following formula: n = number of trials (i.e. total number of bets) ln = natural logarithm1 P = probability2 | .. | = absolute value or ‘modulus’ Simply put, let's say you are betting on Heads in a coin toss (with a 50% expected value). You are still going to have runs of losing streaks and winning streaks. Over...
12 ways to spot a questionable tipping service
Many new, seasonal and experienced punters have successfully utilised tipping services to compare approaches and increase their winnings. If you are one of them, we are sure that you’ve found a handful of so-called professional tipping services that offer or even promise great results. And oftentimes, it’s difficult to spot which ones are credible especially because everyone promotes themselves...
Saturday Newsletter 6 January 2024
There is some good racing across the country today. The main meeting in Victoria is at Geelong where the feature race is the Listed $200,000 Black Pearl Stakes for fillies and mares over 1200m. The favourite is Va Via and there are plenty of chances including Eternal Flame, Marble Arch and Holly Lolly. Randwick has 10 races and in Queensland there are 9 Gold Coast races featuring the $250,000 The...
Dealing with losing streaks
There have been many articles written on the psychological aspects of dealing with the inevitable losing runs that you will encounter if you gamble. But one of the most important aspects of getting your head around a losing run psychologically is to know the worst losing sequence you can expect. This is generally termed the ELS (expected losing sequence) and the formula for calculating it is...
10 New Year Betting Resolutions
Want this year to be the one you stop losing on the punt and start making a reliable and long term profit? Or are you already betting somewhat successfully but want to turbocharge your betting profits to the next level? Either way, here are 10 handy Betting Resolutions to get your betting on track like a professional. 1) OPERATE A BETTING BANK The reason many punters fail is they do not adhere to...